WEBVTT 0 00:00:00.320 --> 00:00:03.000 Anna: Welcome to Astronomy Daily, your 1 00:00:03.000 --> 00:00:05.640 source for the latest space and astronomy 2 00:00:05.640 --> 00:00:07.120 news. I'm Anna. 3 00:00:07.200 --> 00:00:09.600 Avery: And I'm Avery. Thanks for joining us on this 4 00:00:09.600 --> 00:00:12.400 Thursday, February 29, 2026. 5 00:00:12.720 --> 00:00:15.160 We've got a fascinating lineup today covering 6 00:00:15.160 --> 00:00:17.160 everything from Mercury's surprising 7 00:00:17.160 --> 00:00:19.520 geological activity to a possible 8 00:00:19.680 --> 00:00:21.360 asteroid impact on the M Moon. 9 00:00:21.600 --> 00:00:24.400 Anna: That's right. We're going to explore bright 10 00:00:24.400 --> 00:00:27.160 streaks on Mercury that suggest our 11 00:00:27.160 --> 00:00:29.840 smallest planet is still geologically 12 00:00:29.840 --> 00:00:32.410 active. Cheque in on NASA's TESS 13 00:00:32.410 --> 00:00:35.210 satellite after a command error temporarily 14 00:00:35.210 --> 00:00:38.130 sidelined it and discuss the discovery of an 15 00:00:38.130 --> 00:00:41.090 intriguing Earth like exoplanet that's 16 00:00:41.090 --> 00:00:42.690 much colder than you might expect. 17 00:00:43.330 --> 00:00:45.450 Avery: Plus, we'll bring you updates on NASA and 18 00:00:45.450 --> 00:00:48.090 SpaceX. Moving up the Crew 12 launch to help 19 00:00:48.090 --> 00:00:49.690 out the Skeleton crew currently on the 20 00:00:49.690 --> 00:00:52.050 International Space Station. Then we'll dive 21 00:00:52.050 --> 00:00:54.370 into the wild world of runaway black holes 22 00:00:54.370 --> 00:00:57.130 tearing through space and wrap up with what 23 00:00:57.130 --> 00:00:59.450 could be a once in a lifetime scientific 24 00:00:59.450 --> 00:01:02.290 opportunity if an asteroid hits the moon in 25 00:01:02.290 --> 00:01:03.400 2020 32. 26 00:01:03.720 --> 00:01:04.800 Anna: It's quite a ride. 27 00:01:04.800 --> 00:01:07.640 Today, let's get started with some surprising 28 00:01:07.720 --> 00:01:10.320 news from the innermost planet in our solar 29 00:01:10.320 --> 00:01:10.600 system. 30 00:01:11.240 --> 00:01:13.720 Avery: Mercury has long been viewed as a small, 31 00:01:13.800 --> 00:01:16.680 geologically dead world, but new research 32 00:01:16.680 --> 00:01:19.080 is challenging that assumption in a big way. 33 00:01:19.400 --> 00:01:21.680 A team led by researchers at the University 34 00:01:21.680 --> 00:01:24.640 of Bern has uncovered hundreds of bright 35 00:01:24.640 --> 00:01:27.560 linear streaks on crater slopes that point to 36 00:01:27.560 --> 00:01:30.150 ongoing volcanic activity and and volatile 37 00:01:30.150 --> 00:01:31.790 laws from Mercury's interior. 38 00:01:32.190 --> 00:01:34.830 Anna: This is really fascinating work, Avery. 39 00:01:34.990 --> 00:01:37.830 The team applied deep learning techniques to 40 00:01:37.830 --> 00:01:40.310 analyse about 100,000 high 41 00:01:40.310 --> 00:01:42.990 resolution images taken by NASA's 42 00:01:42.990 --> 00:01:45.270 messenger spacecraft during its orbital 43 00:01:45.270 --> 00:01:47.630 mission from 2011 to 2015. 44 00:01:48.270 --> 00:01:51.110 Using this automated approach, they mapped 45 00:01:51.110 --> 00:01:53.470 the global distribution of roughly 46 00:01:53.550 --> 00:01:56.510 400 bright streaks that had previously 47 00:01:56.510 --> 00:01:58.670 escaped comprehensive cataloguing. 48 00:01:58.960 --> 00:02:01.240 Avery: And what they found was pretty telling. These 49 00:02:01.240 --> 00:02:04.000 features, known as slope lineae, occur 50 00:02:04.000 --> 00:02:06.760 preferentially on sun facing slopes inside 51 00:02:06.760 --> 00:02:09.360 relatively young impact craters that cut 52 00:02:09.360 --> 00:02:11.680 through thick volcanic deposits. The 53 00:02:11.680 --> 00:02:13.800 concentration of streaks in these thermally 54 00:02:13.800 --> 00:02:16.360 stressed environments indicates that solar 55 00:02:16.360 --> 00:02:18.680 heating is an important trigger for volatile 56 00:02:18.680 --> 00:02:20.560 escape from near surface layers. 57 00:02:20.960 --> 00:02:23.760 Anna: Much of these streaks originate in small 58 00:02:23.920 --> 00:02:26.920 bright depressions called hollows that dot 59 00:02:26.920 --> 00:02:29.830 crater floors and walls. These hollows have 60 00:02:29.830 --> 00:02:32.550 long been interpreted as products of volatile 61 00:02:32.550 --> 00:02:35.030 loss, and their close association with the 62 00:02:35.030 --> 00:02:38.030 lineae supports the view that both structures 63 00:02:38.110 --> 00:02:41.030 form when volatile components like sulphur 64 00:02:41.030 --> 00:02:43.750 or other light elements escape from the 65 00:02:43.750 --> 00:02:44.510 subsurface. 66 00:02:44.830 --> 00:02:47.110 Avery: According to the research team, fracture 67 00:02:47.110 --> 00:02:49.150 networks created by the original impact 68 00:02:49.150 --> 00:02:51.670 events likely provide pathways that allow 69 00:02:51.670 --> 00:02:54.310 volatile rich material from deeper levels to 70 00:02:54.310 --> 00:02:56.850 reach the surface. Uh, as solar radiation 71 00:02:56.850 --> 00:02:59.570 warms these exposed zones, volatiles can 72 00:02:59.570 --> 00:03:02.330 escape into space, driving the development or 73 00:03:02.330 --> 00:03:05.130 modification of the Bright streaks downslope. 74 00:03:05.370 --> 00:03:08.010 Anna: What's particularly exciting is the 75 00:03:08.010 --> 00:03:10.930 timing. This research arrives just as the 76 00:03:10.930 --> 00:03:13.850 joint ESA and JAXA uh, Becky Colombo 77 00:03:13.850 --> 00:03:16.490 mission is en route to Mercury. The mission 78 00:03:16.490 --> 00:03:19.090 carries an advanced payload that includes 79 00:03:19.090 --> 00:03:21.450 several key contributions from the University 80 00:03:21.530 --> 00:03:22.540 of Bernard. 81 00:03:22.770 --> 00:03:25.610 Avery: Absolutely. The Becky Colombo Laser Altimeter 82 00:03:25.610 --> 00:03:28.610 or bela, was designed and built in part 83 00:03:28.610 --> 00:03:31.410 at the University of Bern. It will use laser 84 00:03:31.410 --> 00:03:33.570 pulses from an orbit roughly a thousand 85 00:03:33.570 --> 00:03:35.970 kilometres above the surface to measure 86 00:03:35.970 --> 00:03:38.050 elevations with about 10 centimetre 87 00:03:38.050 --> 00:03:40.210 precision, enabling a uh, detailed 88 00:03:40.210 --> 00:03:42.530 reconstruction of Mercury's topography. 89 00:03:42.770 --> 00:03:45.570 Anna: The Bern team also contributed the ion 90 00:03:45.570 --> 00:03:48.450 optical system for STROFEO, a NASA 91 00:03:48.450 --> 00:03:51.120 mass spectrometer on BepiColombo that will m 92 00:03:51.120 --> 00:03:53.290 measure the composition of Mercury's 93 00:03:53.290 --> 00:03:55.990 extremely thin atmosphere, connecting 94 00:03:55.990 --> 00:03:58.990 present day volatile escape at the surface to 95 00:03:58.990 --> 00:04:00.510 the surrounding exosphere. 96 00:04:00.830 --> 00:04:03.070 Avery: The research team plans to use the current 97 00:04:03.070 --> 00:04:05.910 inventory of slope streaks as a baseline for 98 00:04:05.910 --> 00:04:08.710 future comparisons once BepiColombo begins 99 00:04:08.710 --> 00:04:11.550 returning data by imaging key regions 100 00:04:11.550 --> 00:04:13.710 again, they aim to determine whether new 101 00:04:13.710 --> 00:04:16.190 streaks have formed or existing ones have 102 00:04:16.190 --> 00:04:18.910 changed since the MESSENGER era. Any such 103 00:04:18.910 --> 00:04:21.350 changes would provide strong evidence that 104 00:04:21.350 --> 00:04:23.870 volatile driven processes are still 105 00:04:23.870 --> 00:04:26.340 reshaping Mercury's surface on human time 106 00:04:26.410 --> 00:04:27.130 timescales. 107 00:04:27.370 --> 00:04:30.090 Anna: It's a great reminder that even our smallest 108 00:04:30.090 --> 00:04:32.690 closest planetary neighbour still has secrets 109 00:04:32.690 --> 00:04:35.530 to reveal. Mercury is far more dynamic than 110 00:04:35.530 --> 00:04:36.010 we thought. 111 00:04:36.490 --> 00:04:38.690 Avery: Shifting from Mercury to uh, our planet 112 00:04:38.690 --> 00:04:41.570 hunting efforts, NASA's Transiting Exoplanet 113 00:04:41.570 --> 00:04:44.250 Survey Satellite, or TESS, recently had a bit 114 00:04:44.250 --> 00:04:46.770 of a scare when a command error temporarily 115 00:04:46.770 --> 00:04:47.690 knocked it offline. 116 00:04:48.170 --> 00:04:50.810 Anna: Right. The spacecraft was forced into safe 117 00:04:50.810 --> 00:04:53.490 mode after an unexpected command error caused 118 00:04:53.490 --> 00:04:55.690 its solar panels to misalign with the sun. 119 00:04:56.150 --> 00:04:58.550 This misalignment had serious consequences 120 00:04:58.790 --> 00:05:00.710 because the panels were unable to charge 121 00:05:00.710 --> 00:05:03.150 tess's batteries, leading to a low power 122 00:05:03.150 --> 00:05:04.990 condition that triggered the automatic 123 00:05:04.990 --> 00:05:06.390 transition to safe mode. 124 00:05:06.630 --> 00:05:09.310 Avery: In safe mode, all non essential systems are 125 00:05:09.310 --> 00:05:11.310 turned off to conserve power and the 126 00:05:11.310 --> 00:05:13.590 spacecraft awaits further instructions from 127 00:05:13.590 --> 00:05:16.190 ground controllers. NASA engineers quickly 128 00:05:16.190 --> 00:05:18.350 worked to resolve the issue and fortunately 129 00:05:18.350 --> 00:05:20.790 tess's safe mode performed as intended, 130 00:05:21.030 --> 00:05:22.990 protecting the spacecraft from permanent 131 00:05:22.990 --> 00:05:23.430 damage. 132 00:05:24.080 --> 00:05:26.840 Anna: This incident is actually reminiscent of past 133 00:05:26.840 --> 00:05:29.720 missin failures. Remember Viking 1 back 134 00:05:29.720 --> 00:05:32.680 in 1982? A uh, faulty command caused the 135 00:05:32.680 --> 00:05:35.000 loss of communication and there was that 136 00:05:35.000 --> 00:05:37.360 catastrophic series of events that nearly 137 00:05:37.360 --> 00:05:39.999 destroyed the Soho probe in 1998. 138 00:05:40.160 --> 00:05:43.040 But unlike those cases, TESS was fortunate 139 00:05:43.040 --> 00:05:44.480 to have safeguards in place. 140 00:05:44.960 --> 00:05:47.680 Avery: Exactly. The spacecraft's automatic safe 141 00:05:47.680 --> 00:05:49.560 mode kicked in when the power situation 142 00:05:49.560 --> 00:05:52.360 became critical. The safe mode is designed to 143 00:05:52.360 --> 00:05:54.760 preserve the spacecraft's core functions such 144 00:05:54.760 --> 00:05:57.040 as attitude control and ensure it can be 145 00:05:57.040 --> 00:05:59.480 reactivated once engineers identify and 146 00:05:59.480 --> 00:06:00.320 address the issue. 147 00:06:00.720 --> 00:06:03.040 Anna: According to NASA, the mission team is now 148 00:06:03.040 --> 00:06:05.560 reviewing and updating procedures to prevent 149 00:06:05.560 --> 00:06:07.400 this command error from happening in the 150 00:06:07.400 --> 00:06:09.800 future. It's a good reminder that even with 151 00:06:09.800 --> 00:06:12.680 advanced technology, human error remains a 152 00:06:12.680 --> 00:06:14.720 significant challenge in space operations. 153 00:06:15.520 --> 00:06:17.880 Avery: Absolutely. While tess's recovery was 154 00:06:17.880 --> 00:06:20.200 successful and demonstrates how far space 155 00:06:20.200 --> 00:06:22.820 mission technology has come, this incident 156 00:06:22.820 --> 00:06:25.340 emphasises the need for continued vigilance 157 00:06:25.340 --> 00:06:28.220 in mission planning. The risk of human error 158 00:06:28.220 --> 00:06:30.780 is always there, and the consequences can be 159 00:06:30.780 --> 00:06:33.380 costly in terms of both time and resources. 160 00:06:33.780 --> 00:06:36.460 Anna: The good news is that TESS is back online and 161 00:06:36.460 --> 00:06:38.700 continuing its important work of hunting for 162 00:06:38.700 --> 00:06:41.420 exoplanets. Which brings us nicely to our 163 00:06:41.420 --> 00:06:43.940 next storey about a newly discovered Earth 164 00:06:43.940 --> 00:06:44.580 like world. 165 00:06:45.140 --> 00:06:47.740 Avery: Speaking of exoplanets, astronomers have just 166 00:06:47.740 --> 00:06:49.860 discovered what might be one of the closest 167 00:06:49.860 --> 00:06:52.410 things we have to Earth's twin. Though it's 168 00:06:52.410 --> 00:06:54.170 considerably colder than our home. 169 00:06:54.170 --> 00:06:56.410 Anna: Planet, the Exoplanet is called 170 00:06:56.410 --> 00:06:59.690 HD13710B 171 00:06:59.930 --> 00:07:02.650 and it's located 146 light years 172 00:07:02.650 --> 00:07:05.290 away. It's slightly larger than Earth and 173 00:07:05.290 --> 00:07:07.450 orbits a star that resembles our Sun. 174 00:07:07.770 --> 00:07:10.370 However, despite its similarities to Earth in 175 00:07:10.370 --> 00:07:13.170 terms of size and orbital period, its surface 176 00:07:13.170 --> 00:07:15.370 could be far colder than even Mars, 177 00:07:15.450 --> 00:07:18.090 potentially reaching a frigid minus 90 178 00:07:18.090 --> 00:07:21.050 degrees Fahrenheit or minus 68 degrees 179 00:07:21.050 --> 00:07:21.610 Celsius. 180 00:07:21.990 --> 00:07:23.990 Avery: This discovery was published in the 181 00:07:23.990 --> 00:07:26.910 Astrophysical Journal Letters and was made by 182 00:07:26.910 --> 00:07:29.830 an international team led by Alexander 183 00:07:29.830 --> 00:07:32.390 Venner. The search for Earth, like 184 00:07:32.390 --> 00:07:35.110 exoplanets, has been a central focus of 185 00:07:35.110 --> 00:07:38.070 astronomical research for over three decades 186 00:07:38.070 --> 00:07:38.390 now. 187 00:07:38.630 --> 00:07:41.190 Anna: Dr. Huang, a key member of the research team, 188 00:07:41.190 --> 00:07:43.550 explained it well when he said, since the 189 00:07:43.550 --> 00:07:45.870 discovery of the first exoplanet 30 years 190 00:07:45.870 --> 00:07:48.270 ago, we've always tried to find Earth's 191 00:07:48.270 --> 00:07:51.250 Trinity. HD13007 010 192 00:07:51.250 --> 00:07:53.410 b could bring us closer to that goal. 193 00:07:53.570 --> 00:07:56.170 Although it's not an exact match, the. 194 00:07:56.170 --> 00:07:58.690 Avery: Planet is positioned in what astronomers call 195 00:07:58.690 --> 00:08:01.370 the habitable zone of its star, which is the 196 00:08:01.370 --> 00:08:03.730 area where water could potentially exist in 197 00:08:03.730 --> 00:08:06.090 liquid form, which is crucial for life as we 198 00:08:06.090 --> 00:08:08.930 know it. However, there's a major obstacle 199 00:08:09.330 --> 00:08:10.130 right the. 200 00:08:10.130 --> 00:08:11.250 Anna: Star HD 201 00:08:11.250 --> 00:08:14.050 137010B 202 00:08:14.130 --> 00:08:16.930 orbits is cooler and dimmer than our sun, 203 00:08:17.500 --> 00:08:20.060 meaning the planet receives only a fraction 204 00:08:20.060 --> 00:08:22.740 of the energy Earth does. This could result 205 00:08:22.740 --> 00:08:24.860 in surface temperatures as low as 206 00:08:24.860 --> 00:08:27.860 -90 degrees Fahrenheit, making it one 207 00:08:27.860 --> 00:08:30.180 of the coldest exoplanets discovered in 208 00:08:30.180 --> 00:08:30.860 recent years. 209 00:08:31.500 --> 00:08:34.220 Avery: But scientists remain hopeful. Dr. 210 00:08:34.220 --> 00:08:36.140 Venner pointed out that while the planet's 211 00:08:36.140 --> 00:08:38.500 surface might be frozen, it could still fall 212 00:08:38.500 --> 00:08:41.060 within the broader optimistic habitable zone 213 00:08:41.060 --> 00:08:43.580 of its star. With the right atmospheric 214 00:08:43.580 --> 00:08:44.060 conditions, 215 00:08:44.300 --> 00:08:47.420 HD137010B 216 00:08:47.580 --> 00:08:49.680 might not be as inhospitable as its 217 00:08:49.680 --> 00:08:50.760 temperature suggests. 218 00:08:51.240 --> 00:08:53.720 Anna: One of the challenges of studying this planet 219 00:08:53.720 --> 00:08:56.360 is its orbital distance from its star, which 220 00:08:56.360 --> 00:08:58.960 is similar to Earth's but much farther than 221 00:08:58.960 --> 00:09:01.200 the typical exoplanets that are easier to 222 00:09:01.200 --> 00:09:04.120 observe. Transits when the planet crosses 223 00:09:04.120 --> 00:09:06.840 in front of its star happen less frequently, 224 00:09:07.000 --> 00:09:09.360 making it harder to confirm the planet's 225 00:09:09.360 --> 00:09:09.880 existence. 226 00:09:10.440 --> 00:09:13.000 Avery: The discovery was made from a single Transit 227 00:09:13.000 --> 00:09:15.560 captured by NASA's Kepler Space Telescope. 228 00:09:16.220 --> 00:09:17.780 Further confirmation of the planet's 229 00:09:17.780 --> 00:09:20.460 existence and detailed analysis of its mass 230 00:09:20.460 --> 00:09:23.300 and atmosphere will require more data, which 231 00:09:23.300 --> 00:09:25.260 might not be possible until the next 232 00:09:25.260 --> 00:09:27.420 generation of telescopes become operational. 233 00:09:27.900 --> 00:09:30.500 Anna: It's an exciting discovery that adds to our 234 00:09:30.500 --> 00:09:32.740 understanding of the types of environments 235 00:09:32.740 --> 00:09:35.620 where life could potentially exist beyond our 236 00:09:35.620 --> 00:09:37.500 solar system. Even if 237 00:09:37.500 --> 00:09:40.700 HD137010B 238 00:09:40.860 --> 00:09:43.530 is too cold for life as we know it, it 239 00:09:43.530 --> 00:09:46.210 teaches us valuable lessons about planetary 240 00:09:46.210 --> 00:09:46.850 habitability. 241 00:09:47.730 --> 00:09:49.970 Avery: Now let's turn our attention back to Earth 242 00:09:49.970 --> 00:09:52.370 orbit and the International Space Station. 243 00:09:52.850 --> 00:09:55.170 NASA has announced an earlier than expected 244 00:09:55.330 --> 00:09:57.970 target date to launch the next astronauts to 245 00:09:57.970 --> 00:09:58.370 the ISS. 246 00:09:59.330 --> 00:10:01.970 Anna: That's right, the agency is now targeting 247 00:10:01.970 --> 00:10:04.850 February 11 for liftoff of SpaceX 248 00:10:04.930 --> 00:10:07.530 Crew 12 mission, which will fly four 249 00:10:07.530 --> 00:10:09.890 astronauts to join the skeleton crew 250 00:10:09.970 --> 00:10:11.730 presently operating the orbital. 251 00:10:12.630 --> 00:10:15.030 That's four days earlier than originally 252 00:10:15.030 --> 00:10:15.430 planned. 253 00:10:15.910 --> 00:10:18.670 Avery: Just to give everyone context, currently only 254 00:10:18.670 --> 00:10:20.350 three crew members are covering the 255 00:10:20.350 --> 00:10:22.590 maintenance and science investigations aboard 256 00:10:22.590 --> 00:10:25.270 the ISS. They were left behind on January 257 00:10:25.510 --> 00:10:28.390 14th by the early departure of Crew 11 258 00:10:28.790 --> 00:10:30.870 on the station's first ever medical 259 00:10:30.870 --> 00:10:31.590 evacuation. 260 00:10:32.230 --> 00:10:35.190 Anna: The M Crew 12 astronauts were already in line 261 00:10:35.190 --> 00:10:38.070 to take the Crew 11's quartet's place, but 262 00:10:38.070 --> 00:10:40.510 they had originally been scheduled to overlap 263 00:10:40.510 --> 00:10:42.470 with them before their return to Earth. 264 00:10:42.970 --> 00:10:45.570 SpaceX and NASA had originally targeted 265 00:10:45.570 --> 00:10:48.410 February 15 for Crew 12's launch, but 266 00:10:48.410 --> 00:10:50.650 managed to get the mission's crew Dragon 267 00:10:50.650 --> 00:10:53.490 spacecraft and Falcon 9 rocket ready ahead 268 00:10:53.490 --> 00:10:54.170 of schedule. 269 00:10:54.330 --> 00:10:57.010 Avery: The Crew 12 team includes NASA 270 00:10:57.010 --> 00:10:59.530 astronauts Jessica Meir, who's the mission 271 00:10:59.530 --> 00:11:02.410 commander, and Jack Hathaway as pilot. 272 00:11:02.810 --> 00:11:05.810 The mission specialists are Sophie Adenot of 273 00:11:05.810 --> 00:11:07.930 the European Space Agency and 274 00:11:07.930 --> 00:11:10.290 Roscosmos cosmonaut Andrei 275 00:11:10.290 --> 00:11:11.130 Fedyayev. 276 00:11:11.540 --> 00:11:14.380 Anna: Interestingly, Fedyav was a relatively late 277 00:11:14.380 --> 00:11:17.340 replacement for cosmonaut Oleg Artemiev, who 278 00:11:17.340 --> 00:11:20.020 was pulled off Crew 12 in early December, 279 00:11:20.260 --> 00:11:23.140 possibly for violating US national security 280 00:11:23.220 --> 00:11:24.100 regulations. 281 00:11:24.660 --> 00:11:27.419 Avery: This quartet will fly the crew Dragon capsule 282 00:11:27.419 --> 00:11:30.020 named Grace to the ISS for a longer than 283 00:11:30.020 --> 00:11:32.780 normal assignment lasting nine months instead 284 00:11:32.780 --> 00:11:35.020 of the typical six months. It'll be the 285 00:11:35.020 --> 00:11:37.860 second spaceflight for both Mayur and Fedyav, 286 00:11:37.860 --> 00:11:40.140 while Hathaway and Adino uh are both 287 00:11:40.140 --> 00:11:42.460 spaceflight rookies headed to orbit for the 288 00:11:42.460 --> 00:11:43.060 first time. 289 00:11:43.600 --> 00:11:46.520 Anna: The launch window opens on February 11th at 290 00:11:46.520 --> 00:11:49.520 6:00am Eastern Time from Launch Complex 40 291 00:11:49.520 --> 00:11:52.000 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in 292 00:11:52.000 --> 00:11:54.640 Florida. If they don't manage to launch that 293 00:11:54.640 --> 00:11:56.800 day, there are backup opportunities. On 294 00:11:56.800 --> 00:11:59.680 February 12th and 13th, the Crew. 295 00:11:59.680 --> 00:12:02.360 Avery: 12 astronauts will join NASA, Chris Williams 296 00:12:02.360 --> 00:12:05.200 and cosmonauts Sergey Kud Sverskov and 297 00:12:05.200 --> 00:12:07.680 Sergei Mikayev as part of ISS 298 00:12:07.920 --> 00:12:10.520 Expedition 74, which will eventually 299 00:12:10.520 --> 00:12:13.480 transition to Expedition 75 before 300 00:12:13.480 --> 00:12:16.060 the end of Crew 12's rotation station. It's 301 00:12:16.060 --> 00:12:17.900 great to see the relief crew heading up 302 00:12:17.900 --> 00:12:19.780 sooner to help out the skeleton crew 303 00:12:19.780 --> 00:12:21.260 currently managing the station. 304 00:12:21.820 --> 00:12:24.540 Anna: Now for something truly mind bending. 305 00:12:24.700 --> 00:12:27.620 Astronomers have confirmed the first runaway 306 00:12:27.620 --> 00:12:30.180 supermassive black hole and it's leaving 307 00:12:30.180 --> 00:12:31.500 quite a trail behind it. 308 00:12:31.900 --> 00:12:34.580 Avery: This is wild stuff, Anna. Uh, the black 309 00:12:34.580 --> 00:12:37.420 hole was identified by a 200,000 light 310 00:12:37.420 --> 00:12:40.180 year tail and a supersonic bow shock in the 311 00:12:40.180 --> 00:12:43.000 Cosmic Owl galaxy, which is actually a 312 00:12:43.000 --> 00:12:45.920 pair of ring galaxies about 8.8 billion 313 00:12:46.000 --> 00:12:48.560 light years away. The rings appear as 314 00:12:48.560 --> 00:12:50.760 owlized as they get closer and closer to 315 00:12:50.760 --> 00:12:51.280 merging. 316 00:12:51.360 --> 00:12:54.050 Anna: The research led by Peter von Dockam, um, 317 00:12:54.080 --> 00:12:56.400 from Yale's Astronomy Department, was 318 00:12:56.400 --> 00:12:59.000 confirmed using observations from the James 319 00:12:59.000 --> 00:13:01.520 Webb Space Telescope. The central 320 00:13:01.680 --> 00:13:04.440 proposal is that this linear feature is the 321 00:13:04.440 --> 00:13:07.240 wake behind a runaway supermassive black 322 00:13:07.240 --> 00:13:10.050 hole. And this is strongly supported by their 323 00:13:10.050 --> 00:13:10.690 analysis. 324 00:13:10.930 --> 00:13:13.010 Avery: But how does something weighing potentially 325 00:13:13.010 --> 00:13:15.370 millions or even billions of times the mass 326 00:13:15.370 --> 00:13:18.330 of our sun get kicked out of a galaxy? The 327 00:13:18.330 --> 00:13:21.090 answer lies in galaxy mergers. When big 328 00:13:21.090 --> 00:13:23.530 galaxies collide and merge, they force the 329 00:13:23.530 --> 00:13:25.690 black holes at their respective centres into 330 00:13:25.690 --> 00:13:26.690 close proximity. 331 00:13:27.090 --> 00:13:29.770 Anna: Right. If two black holes become locked in a 332 00:13:29.770 --> 00:13:32.570 gravitational dance and then a third crashes 333 00:13:32.570 --> 00:13:35.330 in from another merging galaxy, the resulting 334 00:13:35.330 --> 00:13:38.170 instability can hurl one of the trio away at 335 00:13:38.170 --> 00:13:41.130 sufficient speed to exit the host galaxy 336 00:13:41.130 --> 00:13:43.690 entirely. This can happen through two main 337 00:13:43.690 --> 00:13:44.410 mechanisms. 338 00:13:44.730 --> 00:13:47.450 Avery: The first is gravitational wave recoil. 339 00:13:47.690 --> 00:13:49.510 When black holes merge, they emit uh, 340 00:13:49.810 --> 00:13:51.570 gravitational waves that can give the 341 00:13:51.570 --> 00:13:54.130 resulting black hole a velocity boost of up 342 00:13:54.130 --> 00:13:56.330 to several thousand kilometres per second, 343 00:13:56.730 --> 00:13:58.970 propelling it away from the galactic centre. 344 00:13:59.210 --> 00:14:01.330 Anna: The second mechanism is the classical 345 00:14:01.330 --> 00:14:04.200 slingshot scenario. In this case, a long 346 00:14:04.200 --> 00:14:06.600 lived binary black hole forms through a 347 00:14:06.600 --> 00:14:09.120 merger of two galaxies when a third 348 00:14:09.120 --> 00:14:11.560 supermassive black hole is introduced. In a 349 00:14:11.560 --> 00:14:14.480 second merger, the three body interaction can 350 00:14:14.480 --> 00:14:16.920 eject one of the black holes, usually the 351 00:14:16.920 --> 00:14:17.520 lightest one. 352 00:14:17.840 --> 00:14:19.920 Avery: What's particularly striking about this 353 00:14:19.920 --> 00:14:22.760 confirmed runaway black hole is the trail it 354 00:14:22.760 --> 00:14:25.280 leaves behind. As the black hole ploughs 355 00:14:25.280 --> 00:14:27.560 through intergalactic space, it compresses 356 00:14:27.560 --> 00:14:29.480 tenuous gas in front of it, which 357 00:14:29.480 --> 00:14:32.080 precipitates the birth of hot blue stars. 358 00:14:32.610 --> 00:14:35.250 This creates a 200,000 light year long 359 00:14:35.250 --> 00:14:36.850 contrail of young stars. 360 00:14:37.170 --> 00:14:39.890 Anna: The black hole also generates a bow shock at 361 00:14:39.890 --> 00:14:41.610 the head of this week, something the 362 00:14:41.610 --> 00:14:44.210 researchers predicted based on shock models 363 00:14:44.450 --> 00:14:46.730 from the ages of the stars in the trail. They 364 00:14:46.730 --> 00:14:49.330 deduce that the black hole escaped about 40 365 00:14:49.330 --> 00:14:51.570 million years ago and is barreling through 366 00:14:51.570 --> 00:14:54.530 space at roughly 1600 kilometres per 367 00:14:54.530 --> 00:14:54.850 second. 368 00:14:55.170 --> 00:14:57.290 Avery: To put that in perspective, that's fast 369 00:14:57.290 --> 00:14:59.650 enough to travel from Earth to the moon in 370 00:14:59.650 --> 00:15:02.340 about 14 minutes. It's an incredible 371 00:15:02.340 --> 00:15:04.220 speed for something so massive. 372 00:15:04.620 --> 00:15:06.660 Anna: Recent papers have shown images of 373 00:15:06.660 --> 00:15:09.380 surprisingly straight streaks of stars within 374 00:15:09.380 --> 00:15:12.100 galaxies that seem to be convincing evidence 375 00:15:12.100 --> 00:15:15.100 for runaway black holes. One paper describes 376 00:15:15.100 --> 00:15:17.940 a very distant galaxy imaged by James Webb 377 00:15:17.940 --> 00:15:20.340 with a bright contrail, suggesting a black 378 00:15:20.340 --> 00:15:23.220 hole with a mass 10 million times the mass 379 00:15:23.220 --> 00:15:23.740 of the sun. 380 00:15:23.980 --> 00:15:26.300 Avery: It's a reminder that the universe is even 381 00:15:26.300 --> 00:15:28.300 more dynamic and violent than we often 382 00:15:28.300 --> 00:15:31.010 imagine. These behemoths aren't just sitting 383 00:15:31.010 --> 00:15:33.610 quietly at the centres of galaxies. Some of 384 00:15:33.610 --> 00:15:35.530 them are literally tearing through space, 385 00:15:35.690 --> 00:15:37.530 creating new stars in their wake. 386 00:15:37.690 --> 00:15:40.170 Anna: And finally, let's talk about an upcoming 387 00:15:40.170 --> 00:15:42.730 event that has both exciting scientific 388 00:15:42.730 --> 00:15:45.530 potential and some concerning risks. 389 00:15:45.770 --> 00:15:48.570 On 12-22-2032, 390 00:15:48.890 --> 00:15:51.690 asteroid 2024 yr 4 391 00:15:51.770 --> 00:15:54.770 has a 4% chance of actually striking 392 00:15:54.770 --> 00:15:55.450 the Moon. 393 00:15:55.790 --> 00:15:58.750 Avery: A 4% chance might not sound like much, but 394 00:15:58.750 --> 00:16:01.390 it's definitely non negligible. If this 395 00:16:01.390 --> 00:16:03.870 collision does happen, it will release enough 396 00:16:03.870 --> 00:16:06.510 energy to be the equivalent of smacking our 397 00:16:06.510 --> 00:16:08.470 nearest neighbour with a medium sized 398 00:16:08.470 --> 00:16:11.110 thermonuclear weapon. It would be six 399 00:16:11.110 --> 00:16:13.470 orders of magnitude more powerful than the 400 00:16:13.470 --> 00:16:15.910 last major impact on the moon, which happened 401 00:16:15.910 --> 00:16:16.830 back in 2013. 402 00:16:17.310 --> 00:16:20.110 Anna: A uh, new paper from Yifan he of Tsinghua 403 00:16:20.110 --> 00:16:22.390 University looks at the potential scientific 404 00:16:22.390 --> 00:16:25.090 opportunities if this collision occurs. And 405 00:16:25.090 --> 00:16:27.250 while they can simulate models of how the 406 00:16:27.250 --> 00:16:30.010 impact will go, monitoring it as it happens 407 00:16:30.010 --> 00:16:32.650 will provide never before collected actual 408 00:16:32.650 --> 00:16:35.370 data that's infeasible to get any other way. 409 00:16:35.530 --> 00:16:38.370 Avery: The impact would vaporise rock and plasma and 410 00:16:38.370 --> 00:16:40.330 would be clearly visible from the Pacific 411 00:16:40.330 --> 00:16:42.810 region where it will be nighttime during the 412 00:16:42.810 --> 00:16:45.770 impact. Even days after the impact, the 413 00:16:45.770 --> 00:16:48.130 melt pool of the impacted material will still 414 00:16:48.130 --> 00:16:50.850 be cooling, allowing infrared observers like 415 00:16:50.850 --> 00:16:53.170 the James Webb Space Telescope to capture 416 00:16:53.170 --> 00:16:53.930 plenty of data. 417 00:16:54.380 --> 00:16:57.020 Anna: The impact should form a crater roughly one 418 00:16:57.020 --> 00:16:59.740 kilometre wide and 150 to 419 00:16:59.740 --> 00:17:02.740 260 metres deep, with a 100 420 00:17:02.740 --> 00:17:05.260 metre pool of molten rock at the centre. 421 00:17:05.740 --> 00:17:07.860 Comparing it in size to other craters 422 00:17:07.860 --> 00:17:09.780 scattered around the moon will help us 423 00:17:09.780 --> 00:17:11.740 understand its bombardment history. 424 00:17:12.140 --> 00:17:14.220 Avery: The impact will also set off a global 425 00:17:14.300 --> 00:17:17.220 moonquake of magnitude 5.0 that 426 00:17:17.220 --> 00:17:19.620 would be the strongest moonquake yet detected 427 00:17:19.620 --> 00:17:22.520 by any seismometer on the Moon. Watching the 428 00:17:22.520 --> 00:17:24.440 propagation of the moonquake will shine a 429 00:17:24.440 --> 00:17:26.600 light on the Moon's interior and help 430 00:17:26.600 --> 00:17:28.480 researchers understand its composition. 431 00:17:28.640 --> 00:17:31.040 Anna: And here's where it gets really spectacular. 432 00:17:31.280 --> 00:17:33.640 A final piece of the scientific puzzle will 433 00:17:33.640 --> 00:17:36.600 be the debris field created by the blast. Up 434 00:17:36.600 --> 00:17:39.200 to 400 kilogrammes of lunar material 435 00:17:39.360 --> 00:17:42.080 is expected to survive re entry to Earth, 436 00:17:42.320 --> 00:17:45.040 creating essentially a free large scale 437 00:17:45.040 --> 00:17:46.640 lunar sample return mission. 438 00:17:46.800 --> 00:17:49.600 Avery: At its peak right around Christmas of 2032, 439 00:17:50.230 --> 00:17:52.910 simulations expect up to 20 million meteors 440 00:17:52.910 --> 00:17:55.510 per hour to hit our atmosphere, at least on 441 00:17:55.510 --> 00:17:57.710 the leading edge of the planet. Most of them 442 00:17:57.710 --> 00:17:59.590 would have naked eye visibility, including 443 00:17:59.750 --> 00:18:02.710 some 100 to 400 fireballs per hour. 444 00:18:03.030 --> 00:18:05.989 Anna: But there is a downside to all of this that 445 00:18:05.989 --> 00:18:08.550 400 kilogrammes of meteors has to land 446 00:18:08.550 --> 00:18:10.750 somewhere, and it looks like the crosshairs 447 00:18:10.750 --> 00:18:13.590 fall squarely on South America, North Africa 448 00:18:13.590 --> 00:18:16.560 and the Arabian Peninsula. A few kilogrammes 449 00:18:16.560 --> 00:18:18.840 of space rock falling on Dubai could 450 00:18:18.840 --> 00:18:20.160 certainly cause some damage. 451 00:18:20.480 --> 00:18:22.320 Avery: Perhaps more dangerous is the risk of 452 00:18:22.320 --> 00:18:24.760 satellite mega constellations that play such 453 00:18:24.760 --> 00:18:26.560 an important role in our modern day 454 00:18:26.560 --> 00:18:29.480 navigation and Internet systems. Such an 455 00:18:29.480 --> 00:18:31.720 event could trigger Kessler Syndrome and 456 00:18:31.720 --> 00:18:34.120 bring the entire network down over the span 457 00:18:34.120 --> 00:18:36.880 of a few short years, while also locking us 458 00:18:36.880 --> 00:18:38.800 out from being able to get anything else 459 00:18:38.800 --> 00:18:40.800 safely into orbit for much longer. 460 00:18:41.290 --> 00:18:43.690 Anna: Due to the risks, some space agencies are 461 00:18:43.690 --> 00:18:46.050 already considering a deflection mission that 462 00:18:46.050 --> 00:18:49.050 would bump asteroid 2024 yr 4 463 00:18:49.370 --> 00:18:51.330 out of the way of a potential lunar 464 00:18:51.330 --> 00:18:53.610 collision. But that hasn't been set in stone 465 00:18:53.610 --> 00:18:56.250 yet. Neither has the actual impact itself, 466 00:18:56.410 --> 00:18:58.890 with only a 4% chance of happening. 467 00:18:59.050 --> 00:19:01.050 Avery: If the odds increase over the coming years, 468 00:19:01.290 --> 00:19:03.770 we as a species will have to decide whether 469 00:19:03.770 --> 00:19:06.570 it's worth it to deflect it or not. If we 470 00:19:06.570 --> 00:19:08.690 do, we might miss out on a whole bunch of 471 00:19:08.690 --> 00:19:11.150 cool science, but we also might save our 472 00:19:11.150 --> 00:19:13.470 entire orbital infrastructure and the few 473 00:19:13.470 --> 00:19:14.750 lives directly to boot. 474 00:19:14.750 --> 00:19:16.750 Anna: And that wraps up today's episode of 475 00:19:16.750 --> 00:19:19.590 Astronomy Daily. From Mercury's surprising 476 00:19:19.590 --> 00:19:22.150 activity to a possible lunar impact in our 477 00:19:22.150 --> 00:19:25.070 future, space continues to surprise and 478 00:19:25.070 --> 00:19:25.869 amaze us. 479 00:19:26.030 --> 00:19:28.190 Avery: Thanks for joining us today. For more space 480 00:19:28.190 --> 00:19:30.670 news and to explore our archive of episodes, 481 00:19:30.670 --> 00:19:33.550 visit our website@astronomydaily.IO. 482 00:19:33.950 --> 00:19:35.710 you can also find us on social media, 483 00:19:35.870 --> 00:19:38.600 AstroDaily Pod on X, Facebook, 484 00:19:38.840 --> 00:19:40.280 Instagram and YouTube. 485 00:19:40.280 --> 00:19:42.520 Anna: If you enjoyed today's show, please subscribe 486 00:19:42.520 --> 00:19:44.680 on your favourite podcast platform and leave 487 00:19:44.680 --> 00:19:46.960 us a review. It really helps other space 488 00:19:46.960 --> 00:19:49.720 enthusiasts find us. Until next time, keep 489 00:19:49.720 --> 00:19:51.800 looking up clear skies everyone. 490 00:20:00.360 --> 00:20:01.720 Astronomy Day 491 00:20:03.480 --> 00:20:04.040 storeys 492 00:20:06.630 --> 00:20:06.870 love.